シンガポール ５月インフレ率は５％

お読みいただく前に、ランキングアップに協力くださると大変助かります。


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元ネタはこちら
５月のインフレ率は若干軟化しました。これにより１０月に予想されている金融緩和の可能性がたかまったとのことです。５％のインフレ率で若干軟化したとは日本では実感できないですね。

シンガポールのインフレ率は他のアジア諸国よりも若干高めです。それは家の不足と車の保有に制限がかかるからです。このことはこの前の記事でも取り上げました。

MAS（シンガポールの中央銀行）は今年中にインフレ率3.5から4.5%は低下すると予想しています。
インフレ率が低下している理由は、景況感が悪くて、原油など商品価格が下落していることが原因だと思われます。そのため10月には金融緩和の可能性が高まった。とあります。これはREITにとってはおそらくポジティブなニュースでしょう。ニュースを読むと、労働集約型のサービス価格まで低下しているとありますので、不動産の管理手数料なども低下しているのかもしれません。こういう局面では、リース契約期間が長く、賃貸料が短期的に低下しない物件を抱えているREIT、たとえば産業用不動産とか病院などのREITが、より有利に働く局面かもしれません。

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UPDATE 1-Singapore May inflation slows to 5.0 pct y/y

* May CPI +5.0 pct y/y vs +5.1 pct market forecast

* May core inflation +2.7 pct y/y, -0.1 pct m/m

* Pressures from wages, commodities easing - cbank

By Kevin Lim

SINGAPORE, June 25 (Reuters) - Singapore's inflation slowed to 5.0 percent in May from a year ago and authorities cited moderating price pressures from wages and other business costs, indicating the central bank might have room to ease monetary policy slightly in October.


The May inflation was slightly below the median estimate of 5.1 percent of 11 economists polled by Reuters and a sharp improvement over April's 5.4 percent, the highest rate in 2012.

Central banks in the Philippines, New Zealand, Thailand, Indonesia, India and South Korea held rates this month, while China and Australia chose to cut benchmark interest rates as growth concern increased and inflationary pressures eased.

Singapore's inflation has, however, remained high compared with other Asian countries due to a shortage of homes and to measures to cap the number of motor vehicles on the roads, which sent car prices spiralling higher.


The government has also made it harder for employers to bring in cheaper foreign workers, putting upward pressure on salaries for low-skilled workers such as waiters and construction workers.

"Wages and other business costs will continue to pass through to consumer prices, albeit at a more moderate pace than that seen early this year," the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement.

"There could also be downward pressure on the prices of domestic commodity-related items given the recent weakness in global commodity markets," they added.

MAS and MTI reiterated their forecast that inflation will ease in the second half to come in between 3.5 and 4.5 percent this year. Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private road transport, will likely be in the range of 2.5 to 3.0 percent, they added.

ACCOMMODATION, CARS

Singapore manages monetary policy by letting its dollar rise or fall in a undisclosed band against a secret trade-weighted basket of currencies. MAS, whose current stance is for a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar, will release its next half-yearly policy statement in October.

"Inflation pressures appear to be easing... The May CPI data also surprised by showing negative month-on-month changes on some of the more labor-intensive components such as recreation and healthcare," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin.

MAS and MTI said accommodation will remain the largest contributor to inflation this year as leasing contracts continue to be renewed at rentals that are considerably higher than existing agreements.

They also said car prices will remain elevated due to the tighter supply of "certificates of entitlement" (COEs) that motorists must bid for before they can buy a vehicle. For the month of May, the cost of private road transport soared 10.3 percent from a year ago.

High inflation by historical standards is posing a problem for Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's long-ruling People's Action Party, which saw its share of the popular vote fall to the lowest since independence at last year's parliamentary elections.

According to a recent report by the Manpower Ministry, average monthly earnings in Singapore fell 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter after adjusting for inflation, worsening from a 1.4 percent decline in the last three months of 2011.

An MAS survey earlier this month showed the median estimate of economists was for inflation to come in at 4.2 percent for the whole of 2012, which is near the top end of the government's forecast range. (Editing by Richard Borsuk)



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